The hottest topic coming into this Summer is the striker market and which big names will move and who will stay put. Both Premier League rivals Liverpool and Arsenal are battling it out for the signature of Premier League superstar, Alexander Isak, and now, Eintracht Frankfurt’s front man Hugo Ekitike is on the radar also.
According to Florian Plettenberg of Sky Sports Germany Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester United and Italian side Juventus have all registered their interest in the 22-year-old Frenchman.
Ekitike has registered twenty-seven goal contributions across thirty-eight appearances for Frankfurt this season. His returns compared to those around Europe’s top five leagues is not to be snuffed at. Comparing him to a similar player both in build and profile in Alexander Isak you start to see a lot of similarities. Hugo has actually underperformed in some metrics related to his goal scoring and chance creating. His expected goals and assists total sits at 0.98 per90, while his actual returns are less, at 0.77 per90 for his goals and assists combined.
Isak, on the other hand, is slightly overperforming his return metrics. His expected goals and assists tally sits at 0.7 per90, while his actual returns are much higher at 0.92 per90.
Now, you may ask yourself ‘so he scores and assists more than he is supposed to, what is the issue?’ And you would be right, in a sense.
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The xG and xA metrics are a value placed on a chance for how likely it is to result in a goal or assist. For example, a shot with an xG of 0.80 means that if the same action was repeated 100 times, you would expect an average or competent striker to finish that chance 80% of the time. Conversely, an xG value of 0.20 would expect a goal 20% of the time.
Again, though, you find yourself stating ‘so he scores more than he should, that’s good right?’ And you would be correct, if the law of averages did not apply. Everything will always return to the mean. This means based on the numbers for both Isak and Ekitike, the former should see their returns regress, and the latter should see them improve over a long period of time.
Looking at the chance creation metrics for both players compared to Europe’s top 5 leagues, Ekitike is levels above most prospects in Europe right now.
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When looking at the data shown for Ekitike compared to those around the continent, it is clear to see he is a very well rounded attacker in both creation and execution of his own chances and creating for others. More so than most strikers in Europe right now, even those in the Premier League.
Once main concern some have with Ekitike is his lack of strength, or perceived lack of it. He can sometimes be muscled off the ball, his slight frame, similar to Isak, allows for this. With his dribbling capabilities it can negate some of this, but it is one of the main concerns with a move to the Premier League. Can he handle the physicality. A similar question was asked of Isak when he moved from Real Sociedad to Newcastle United. He faired pretty well in hindsight.
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So the question remains for Liverpool, and others. Do you spend close to, or more than, £100million on Isak, who has shown they can do it in the Premier League, or, will the move for a £67million Ekitike be the play, and consider him the ‘next Isak’ to come from Europe and develop into one of the best strikers in the world.